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Considering the Unthinkable
Are Terrorists Capable of a Biological or Chemical Attack? Is the U.S. Ready?
September 24, 2001
Article Source: ABC News [ http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/WTC_chemicalbiologicalqa.html ]
Now that terrorists have demonstrated they're capable of carrying out unthinkable attacks of extreme devastation, some believe the United States should be on higher alert for a biological or chemical attack.
ABCNEWS.com talked to several experts to learn about these weapons, the preparedness of the United States for such attacks and possible defenses against them, including:
- Kyle Olson of Community Research Associates, an Alexandria, Va., consulting firm that specializes on domestic preparedness and terrorism
- Michael Allswede of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh
- Kathleen Vogel of Cornell University
- Victor Weedn of Carnegie Mellon University
- Thomas Inglesby and Tara O'Toole of the Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies at Johns Hopkins University
Most agree that while a biological or chemical attack could be devastating in theory, the logistical challenges of developing effective agents and then dispersing them makes it less likely a terrorist could carry out a successful widespread assault.
Q: How easy would it be for a terrorist to launch a biological attack?
A: Experts say it remains very difficult to transform a deadly virus or bacterium into a weapon that can be effectively dispersed. A bomb carrying a biological agent could likely destroy the germ as it explodes. Dispersing the agents with aerosols is challenging because biomaterials are often wet and can clog sprayers. The Aum Shinrikyo cult, which released the nerve gas sarin in the Tokyo subway system in 1995, killing 12 people, repeatedly tried to produce and disseminate agents, including anthrax, but failed each time.
Some experts think suicide terrorists could resort to spreading smallpox by infecting themselves and then wandering and breathing among large groups of people. But in that scenario, large numbers of people still might not be affected since infection rates vary among people and because people infected by the virus are highly infectious only seven to 10 days following the outbreak of a rash.
Q: What biological weapons pose the biggest threat?
A: Right now, scientists are most concerned about smallpox and anthrax. Both are bacteria that can spread through the air in a powder and cause swift, deadly diseases. Smallpox could be even more lethal because it's easily spread from one person to another. Also worrisome are the bubonic plague, botulism, tularemia and ebola.
Q: How easy is it to develop a biological weapon?
A: Developing an effective anthrax strain is challenging since the spores have to be crafted to just the right size. If too small, a person will exhale the spores. If too large, the spores fall to the ground and become, as Olson says, "road kill." Developing a smallpox agent is also difficult because the virus cannot be easily grown as a seed culture and it is so deadly that lab workers trying to culture the virus could easily become infected and die.
Q: Is the United States prepared for a biological attack?
A: Most experts say the United States is not adequately prepared. The Department of Defense has started vaccinating some members of the military against anthrax, but there are no such vaccination supplies for the general population. The Center for Disease Control has enough stockpiles of smallpox vaccines to medicate 12-15 million people and has contracted for 40 million more doses. There is a vaccine against the bubonic plague but it needs to be administered during a four- to seven-month period before exposure.
There is some concern that the smallpox vaccine may not be effective because it is about 40 years old and has likely degraded over time. There is also the danger that terrorists could develop new strains of smallpox and anthrax. The time required to develop and establish a new vaccine is estimated to be about 36 months.
Rapid detection of a disease outbreak also remains a problem since many doctors have not been trained in how to recognize early symptoms of scourges like anthrax and smallpox. Early symptoms of anthrax can appear as a simple flu. The early signs of smallpox become more obvious about three days following exposure when lesions begin appearing. Some argue that emergency medical facilities are insufficient to handle a widespread attack.
Q: Which diseases that could be used as weapons exist now?
A: Smallpox was eradicated in 1979 and the only known samples of the virus exist under top security in the United States and Russia. Scientists estimate that during a big year, there are about 10,000 cases of anthrax worldwide, almost all resulting from people eating contaminated cattle. There have been no known cases of anthrax in the United States. About 110 cases of botulism are reported in the United States each year.
Q: Once infected, how easy is it to treat the diseases?
A: Doctors can prescribe antibiotics against anthrax that can work if initiated early. If left untreated, the disease is fatal in 90 percent of cases. So far there is no known antiviral substances that have proven effective against smallpox after exposure. Past data suggest the disease is fatal in 30 percent or more of cases.
Q: What countries or terrorist groups are developing these biological weapons?
A: The United States and the former Soviet Union had biological weaponry programs in place for decades and both have stockpiles of deadly germs. Although a global treaty in 1972 bans such weapons, scientists in both countries continue to research biological weapons to better understand the agents for defense purposes.
Iraq admitted to the United Nations in 1995 that it had loaded anthrax spores into warheads during the Gulf War. Osama bin Laden has expressed interest in deadly germs and recent reports say satellite photos have revealed dead animals at a terrorist training camp in eastern Afganistan operated by bin Laden. Some speculate the animals were killed by a chemical or biological agent.
Q: Have biological weapons been used before?
A: Assyrians would catapult animal decaying carcasses over the walls of besieged cities. Soldiers under the Roman Empire tossed animal corpses into their enemies' water supplies. In the 18th century, British soldiers deliberately distributed smallpox-infected blankets to Native Americans.
More recently, the only known successful use of biological weapons in the United States was by the Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh cult in 1984. The group contaminated salad bars in 10 restaurants in The Dalles, Ore., with Salmonella Typhimurium, causing several hundred people to become ill.
Article Source: ABC News [ http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/WTC_chemicalbiologicalqa.html ]
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